The Next Frontier: Pharma and Longevity

Antonis Karamalegos

8 months ago

From The Epic of Gilgamesh, the earliest surviving book, to the controversial biologist΄s David Sinclair‘s research on epigenetic regulation of aging and InSilico Medicine, a company that implements AI to automate and accelerate novel drug discovery, humanity has been struggling with the concept of mortality and the eternal desire to live forever.

Having progressed from clay tablets to supercomputers and from myths to potentially beating the clock, we live in the era of major biological breakthroughs, big data processing, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption. The concept that we can harness the power of innovation to reverse the aging process is no longer a sci-fi scenario but a growing research field and a highly attractive industry for pharma.

Does everyone want to live forever? Lifespan Vs. Healthspan

A 2022 poll of 11,000 Americans revealed that almost 70% want to live 100 years. Those denying it feared increased physical and mental disabilities and not being independent for extended periods toward the end of their lives.

Recent breakthroughs in longevity research address these concerns and offer humans the possibility of living way beyond 100 years (lifespan) while enjoying more healthy years, free from morbidity and disability (healthspan).

What comprises the Longevity market?

The longevity market, which is not mature yet, involves developing and providing products and services that promote a healthy lifespan and improve quality of life, particularly in later stages (healthspan), as well as preventive medicine.

Summarizing key points from different sources, among which Deloitte and Talkinghealth.com, the longevity market includes the below four categories (list not exhaustive). The broadest variety of applications fall under those categories as well.

Research on Hallmarks of aging (investigating the mechanisms of aging)
Geroscience and aging therapeutics (addressing the mechanisms of aging)
Technology for healthy aging / prevention (wearables, biomarkers, health monitoring)
AI-driven technology to conduct fully personalized genome analysis, and accelerate the discovery and development of aging biomarkers and novel anti-ageing drugs

Considering the advancements in all the above categories, there is no doubt that the pursuit of longevity is gaining momentum and attention, and it is something that pharmaceutical and biotech startup companies can’t afford to miss.

5 + 1 reasons why pharma should care about healthy longevity

As the debate among academics and researchers regarding aging is ongoing, with some advocating for it to be treated as a disease and others opposing this “hype”, this article explains why the intersection of pharma and longevity is here to stay.

Sustained increase in longevity investments

Numbers show that life-extending medicine has the potential to be a new frontier in the pharmaceutical industry and a very lucrative investment opportunity.

In 2031, the anti-aging therapeutics market size is expected to be 4 times its 2022 size: According to a report published by Insight Ace Analytic, the anti-aging therapeutics market is expected to grow from US$ 592.02 million in 2022 to more than US$ 2.4 Billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 17.5%, showing an expanding market demand.
Funds allocated to longevity Clinical Trials: In the past 30 years, there has been a growing number of clinical trials targeting mechanisms of aging. These trials are focused on exercise, NAD+ supplementation (Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide, already sold in supplements, has been shown to benefit healthy aging) and dietary restriction. Currently, most of the clinical trials mentioned have been recently completed with only a couple expected to be completed within the next 2 years. These trials focus primarily on physical frailty and facial skin aging. More trials will be entering the pipeline, especially with the discovery of novel biomarkers through big data analysis.

Global, vibrant longevity ecosystem

Consultants, investors, conferences, and academic institutes support businesses active in the longevity/anti-aging space. There is already a worldwide ecosystem enabling information and resources flow. Below, we discuss multiple stakeholders (not exhaustive) supporting companies involved in the longevity/anti-aging space.

Conferences
- ARDD: ARDD, which takes place in Copenhagen, Denmark, every year, is the most prominent conference on Aging Research and Drug Discovery (ARDD) for anyone interested in keeping up with progress in the molecular, cellular, and organismal basis of aging.
- Longevity Investors Conference: The Longevity Investors Conference, the largest exclusive and investor-only focused conference held in Switzerland brings together academia and business and attracts the megarich (millionaires and billionaires) who are willing to pay over 4,000 CHF to participate in order to stay updated with the latest developments in longevity research, network with each other and build strategic partnerships.

Foundations/ Charities
- Hevolution: (global non-profit organization) Originally from Saudi Arabia, having offices in the US and aiming for more locations, Hevolution non-profit fund, in 2022, stated that it was planning to invest $1 Billion annually in the biology of aging and longevity.
- Methuselah Foundation (US non-profit medical charity): With the mission ‘Making 90 the new 50 by 2030’, the Methuselah Foundation has been supporting longevity projects since 2003.

Investment Companies around the world
- Longevity Fund (US): The Longevity Fund counts in its portfolio eighteen companies active in the age-related diseases space. It recently (2023) launched age1, a new fund targeting solely mission-oriented founders keen on building the first longevity drug.
- Korify and Maximon (CH): The Swiss firm Korify has allocated $100 million (2021), and Maximon has allocated $33 million (2023) in longevity startups.
- Regent Pacific Group Limited (HK): Hong Kong-based Regent Pacific, specializing in healthcare, wellness, and life sciences investments, acquired Deep Longevity in 2020, emphasizing their commitment to the longevity sector.

Megarich players
- Prominent billionaires directly invest in longevity companies and therapies, with the most notable personalities being Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman, and Peter Thiel.
- Jeff Bezos, the Amazon founder, has invested in Altos Labs and Unity Biotechnology.
- Sam Altman, the OpenAI founder, has invested US$ 180 million in Retro Biosciences, a company aiming to add a decade to the human lifespan.
- Peter Thiel, the co-founder of Paypal, has invested several millions in the SENS Research Foundation, which researches techniques to rejuvenate the human body.

Silicon Valley startups
- Based on the paradigm shift in aging and using the power of big data processing and AI, a new wave of startups from Silicon Valley, biotech, and pharma have sprung into existence and are expected to grow to a market value of more than US$ 60 billion by 2026. Most longevity firms focus on cellular rejuvenation, anti-aging drugs, and gene therapy.

Longevity is the answer to aging population challenges.

The longevity field is emerging from the aging demographics, the developed world’s challenge. The United Nations and the UK’s Office of National Statistics paint a grim picture for our future global demographics, projecting that by the year 2050, almost 2 billion people will be over 65, with those between 25-64 rising rapidly in numbers.

Most of this elderly population will reside in the developed world, especially in Northern America, China, and Europe. With an aging demographic comes a surge in age-related diseases like Alzheimer’s, heart disease, and diabetes, which will impact societies, the global workforce, and the worldwide economy and result in a meteoric rise in healthcare costs.

Longevity translates into financial resilience.

Harvard Professor and pioneer of the longevity field, Dr. David Sinclair, estimated in a 2021 review published in Nature Magazine that ‘a slowdown in aging that increases life expectancy by 1 year is worth US$38 trillion, and by 10 years, US$367 trillion.’

With the average lifespan increasing, humans will be more productive for longer, leading to immense commercial and financial gains. Furthermore, according to AARP International, people over 50 are the primary consumers of the US economy and the most engaged employees in their respective fields.

Paradigm Shift in Aging Research

Over the last decade, researchers have shifted their approach from aging as a consequence to aging as a central driver and cause of disease.

That major shift in how aging was perceived started in 2013, when the review paper ‘The Hallmarks of Aging‘ was published in the scientific journal Cell, establishing (among others) cell exhaustion and loss of proteostasis as drivers of aging.

Later, in 2022, the paper’s updated version included 12 hallmarks of aging, moving the consensus from treating individual diseases to addressing these hallmarks as drivers of all age-related diseases.

Longevity Influencers on the rise

At the same time, high-profile influencers promote lifestyle changes and life-extending supplements on social media and streaming platforms.

Bryan Johnson, a popular tech executive, spends over $2 million to reduce his biological age by consuming more than 100 supplements daily and adopting a completely vegan diet.

Meanwhile, healthy adult audiences adopt lifestyle changes based on scientific evidence, such as caloric restriction and intermittent fasting. As they prioritize wellness, a new wellness/ longevity market offers new opportunities for pharmaceutical companies to explore.

The above six reasons explain why there are promising prospects in the longevity industry, serving two consumer groups. One is the rapidly aging population that will need lifestyle-enhancing drugs and products to reduce late-life disease and morbidity; the other is young people looking to prevent illness and address aging throughout their lives.

Concerns raised about Longevity. How can we address the challenges?

In conclusion, the longevity market presents a lucrative investment frontier driven by transformative technologies such as big data, Large Language Models (LLM), and Artificial Intelligence (AI). These innovations are set to revolutionize drug development, clinical trials, and personalized healthcare, promising a new era of efficiency and precision tailored to aging demographics.

However, it is imperative to navigate this promising terrain with caution. The classification of aging as a disease, the long-term efficacy, and the potential side effects of new drugs remain areas shrouded in uncertainty. The market is also susceptible to misinformation and commercial exploitation, underscoring the need for rigorous regulations and a well-informed approach to discern genuine innovations from fleeting trends.

Investors find themselves presented with a golden opportunity to contribute to a sector on the cusp of revolutionary breakthroughs, driven by a confluence of technology and growing market optimism. By investing judiciously and championing a culture of informed decision-making and robust regulatory oversight, one can be part of a transformative journey in enhancing human longevity and healthcare.

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Sources:

Clinical Trials Targeting Aging – PMC

Recent clinical trials with stem cells to slow or reverse normal aging processes

Longevity and the New Journey of Retirement

The Future of Aging and Longevity | Deloitte US

The Longevity Industry will be the Biggest and Most Complex Industry in Human History

What is Longevity (industry)?

Longevity Investors Conference | Lifespan.io

Insilico Medicine Uses Generative AI to Accelerate Drug Discovery | NVIDIA Blog

InSilico’s InClinico: An AI predictive tool transforming clinical trials

A calorie-restricted diet may slow aging in healthy adults, science shows

Intermittent Fasting: What is it, and how does it work? | Johns Hopkins Medicine.